{
  "format": "Test",
  "as_of": "2026-10-25",
  "since": "2000-01-01",
  "train_ids": [63867, 63863, 63864, 63870, 63872, 63871, 63873, 63875, 63874, 63878, 63876, 63879, 63877, 63880, 63883, 63881, 63882, 63884, 63885, 63888, 63886, 63889, 63887, 63893, 63894, 63890, 63895, 63891, 63892, 63896, 63897, 63898, 63899, 63902, 63905, 63907, 63906, 63900, 63908, 63903, 63901, 63904, 63909, 63910, 63912, 63913, 63914, 63911, 63915, 63916, 63919, 63917, 63922, 63925, 63920, 63918, 63923, 63926, 63921, 63924, 63927, 63928, 63930, 63929, 63931, 63932, 63933, 63934, 63935, 63936, 63937, 63941, 63942, 63938, 63943, 63939, 63944, 63940, 63946, 63945, 63947, 63949, 63950, 63951, 63953, 63956, 63958, 63957, 63952, 63959, 63954, 63960, 63955, 63961, 63962, 63964, 63967, 63963, 63965, 63968, 63969, 63966, 63970, 63972, 63971, 63973, 63974, 63975, 63978, 63976, 63977, 63948, 63979, 63981, 63980, 63982, 63983, 63984, 63985, 63989, 63986, 63987, 63990, 63988, 63991, 63992, 63993, 63994, 63995, 63997, 63996, 63998, 63999, 64000, 64001, 64004, 64002, 64005, 64007, 64003, 64008, 64006, 64009, 64014, 64016, 64015, 64017, 64010, 64011, 64018, 64020, 64019, 64021, 64022, 64012, 64023, 64013, 64024, 64025, 64028, 64030, 64029, 64026, 64031, 64027, 64032, 64033, 64034, 64035, 64036, 64038, 64037, 64039, 64040, 64043, 64041, 64044, 64045, 64042, 64046, 64048, 64047, 64049, 64050, 64052, 64051, 64053, 64054, 64055, 64056, 64059, 64057, 64060, 64063, 64058, 64067, 64064, 64061, 64068, 64062, 64065, 64066, 64069, 64070, 64071, 64074, 64077, 64072, 64075, 64078, 64073, 64076, 64081, 64079, 64082, 64080, 64083, 64084, 64085, 64086, 64089, 64087, 64090, 64088, 64091, 64092, 64093, 64094, 64097, 64098, 64095, 64096, 64099, 64100, 64103, 64105, 64101, 64104, 64106, 64102, 64107, 64109, 64108, 64110, 64111, 64113, 64112, 64116, 64114, 64117, 64115, 64118, 64121, 64119, 64122, 64120, 64123, 64125, 64128, 64124, 64126, 64129, 64127, 64130, 64131, 64133, 64132, 64134, 207334, 208321, 209929, 209930, 210366, 210368, 213347, 213856, 214009, 215010, 215253, 215686, 216055, 216994, 218383, 218813, 219062, 219612, 219613, 223889, 225443, 226120, 226350, 226348, 226351, 226361, 226362, 226371, 226363, 226372, 226373, 232615, 233797, 234783, 238167, 239025, 238168, 238180, 238186, 238201, 238181, 238187, 238202, 238182, 238216, 238203, 238217, 238171, 238205, 238172, 238206, 238207, 225264, 225265, 225266, 239920, 239921, 239922, 239923, 225255, 225256, 249193, 225257, 249194, 225258, 257765, 257766, 249222, 257767, 249223, 251485, 249224, 249215, 251486, 249225, 249216, 249226, 249217, 250665, 250666, 250667, 258459, 282691, 282692, 258460, 258461, 258462, 293478, 293479, 293480, 258468, 258469, 258470, 299004, 299005, 298793, 291338, 298794, 291339, 297806, 297807, 291222, 297808, 291223, 291224, 291351, 298801, 298802, 291352, 300429, 298803, 300430, 291353, 291354, 323947, 323948, 300442, 300443, 300444, 319132, 332911, 332912, 319133, 332913, 296900, 319139, 296901, 319140, 296902, 319141, 296909, 296910, 343729, 296911, 343730, 296912, 343731, 345669, 345670, 361758, 361759, 345671, 345672, 350345, 351679, 350346, 351680, 361050, 366705, 351681, 361051, 366706, 351682, 378750, 378751, 351683, 352661, 352662, 390680, 388993, 350472, 352663, 388994, 350473, 352664, 366628, 350474, 386496, 366629, 380712, 380713, 403367, 345970, 401071, 403368, 345971, 401072, 403369, 345972, 345973, 403378, 345974, 403379, 430881, 430882, 423778, 406189, 430883, 423779, 406190, 423780, 387570, 406191, 387571, 406199, 406200, 387572, 387573, 406201, 434256, 434257, 441825, 441826, 423786, 426423, 423789, 426424, 423790, 426401, 426402, 439152, 439153, 439154, 426394, 456669, 426395, 456670, 426413, 456671, 426414, 426415, 426416, 464526, 464527, 464531, 461571, 464532, 464987, 464533, 461572, 464988, 428749, 464989, 428750, 428751, 463146, 428752, 463147, 463148, 428753, 473921, 473922, 489218, 489219, 474463, 474464, 474465, 489226, 489227, 489228, 474472, 474473, 522245, 474474, 474475, 516212, 523731, 516213, 516214, 530424, 531986, 530425, 531987, 527017, 530426, 535997, 514029, 535998, 514030, 535999, 518947, 518948, 538072, 514032, 538073, 514033, 518950, 514034, 518951, 518952, 531628, 518953, 531629, 520591, 531630, 520603, 520604, 520605, 521225, 521226, 540176, 540177, 540178, 534205, 534206, 534207, 562444, 562445, 562446, 534225, 560929, 560930, 534226, 534227, 565817, 565818, 573007, 587469, 565806, 582192, 587470, 573008, 565807, 582193, 573009, 565808, 565809, 573011, 573012, 567356, 573013, 567357, 567363, 567364, 567365, 598812, 598813, 569243, 602472, 593988, 569244, 598814, 602473, 593989, 598815, 569245, 623576, 623577, 566921, 566922, 566932, 566933, 566934, 566935, 566936, 659555, 659557, 668949, 649087, 668951, 649089, 676525, 676527, 592397, 661679, 592398, 661681, 592399, 648665, 661683, 592400, 648667, 657647, 592401, 657649, 657651, 690347, 690349, 667651, 648673, 667653, 648675, 648677, 730277, 667899, 730279, 667901, 730281, 667711, 730089, 667713, 730091, 667715, 667717, 745153, 736435, 667719, 745155, 730295, 730297, 727927, 760781, 727929, 760783, 742611, 760785, 742613, 742615, 754737, 722329, 754739, 749777, 722331, 754741, 722333, 749779, 754743, 766929, 766931, 858493, 766933, 858495, 743939, 743941, 810423, 870729, 810425, 860263, 860265, 860267, 743963, 743965, 817213, 743967, 817215, 743969, 895773, 743971, 895775, 895777, 902635, 915773, 902637, 915775, 902639, 903603, 892509, 892511, 903605, 903607, 892513, 903609, 892515, 914203, 914205, 892517, 800461, 800463, 892519, 800465, 800467, 914237, 914239, 913613, 913615, 913617, 913641, 1022593, 913643, 995451, 1024041, 1022595, 995453, 913645, 1024043, 1022597, 913647, 995455, 1022599, 936127, 936129, 1030213, 1030215, 1030217, 1050229, 1029825, 1050231, 1029827, 1059702, 1050233, 1000851, 1059703, 1034809, 1000853, 1019993, 1034811, 1000855, 1019995, 1034813, 1034815, 1000881, 1034817, 936147, 1000883, 936149, 1000885, 936151, 1019985, 1019987, 1041761, 1062573, 1062574, 1083444, 1020041, 1020043, 1083445, 1062575, 1062576, 1020045, 1077953, 1077954, 1077955, 1031437, 1031439, 1104483, 1109602, 1031441, 1109603, 1031443, 1109604, 1031659, 1031661, 1104284, 1104285, 1031663, 1075502, 1120284, 1075503, 1120285, 1122886, 1122887, 1122723, 1072305, 1122724, 1115793, 1072306, 1122725, 1115794, 1072307, 1122310, 1072308, 1072309, 1122276, 1122277, 1122278, 1130744, 1130745, 1075982, 1075983, 1075984, 1115780, 1075985, 1115781, 1127284, 1119535, 1119536, 1135149, 1133983, 1135150, 1135151, 1146717, 1142581, 1146718, 1142582, 1119549, 1119550, 1119551, 1119552, 1119553, 1157752, 1157370, 1157753, 1157371, 1153639, 1140385, 1153640, 1140386, 1157381, 1153311, 1140387, 1157382, 1153312, 1157383, 1144993, 1144994, 1153838, 1144153, 1144995, 1153839, 1144154, 1144996, 1144155, 1158062, 1145000, 1158063, 1145001, 1158064, 1144164, 1144165, 1153847, 1153848, 1168120, 1152839, 1152846, 1152847, 1192873, 1152848, 1188628, 1192874, 1188629, 1152849, 1197138, 1152850, 1187007, 1187008, 1187009, 1187016, 1183530, 1187017, 1187671, 1193500, 1183531, 1187672, 1206635, 1183532, 1206636, 1183533, 1185304, 1183534, 1185305, 1185306, 1212541, 1185307, 1212542, 1213062, 1187685, 1214666, 1187686, 1225247, 1225248, 1225249, 1198241, 1198242, 1198243, 1233957, 1233958, 1223869, 1223870, 1237356, 1233962, 1237357, 1233963, 1223871, 1243015, 1223872, 1243016, 1243017, 1244025, 1243018, 1243384, 1244026, 1243385, 1243386, 1252056, 1243387, 1252057, 1252073, 1252074, 1255828, 1257186, 1255829, 1257187, 1249210, 1263149, 1249211, 1263150, 1249875, 1267676, 1239543, 1263169, 1239544, 1263170, 1239545, 1239546, 1288345, 1278674, 1277977, 1288346, 1278675, 1277978, 1263462, 1263463, 1263464, 1277079, 1288979, 1277080, 1263465, 1288980, 1277081, 1263466, 1288981, 1288982, 1278682, 1288310, 1256726, 1278683, 1288311, 1256727, 1288312, 1256728, 1277100, 1277101, 1308488, 1308489, 1276901, 1276902, 1317147, 1276903, 1317148, 1307301, 1320741, 1307302, 1320953, 1320954, 1276916, 1276917, 1276918, 1317484, 1330871, 1317485, 1330872, 1340848, 1317492, 1330873, 1340849, 1317493, 1339609, 1339610, 1317494, 1350681, 1348652, 1350682, 1322355, 1348653, 1322356, 1339599, 1348654, 1339600, 1322357, 1348655, 1322358, 1355723, 1363447, 1363448, 1336127, 1358412, 1377011, 1336043, 1336044, 1336045, 1381212, 1385685, 1336046, 1381213, 1385686, 1336047, 1395703, 1395704, 1375842, 1387603, 1375843, 1387604, 1375844, 1375845, 1375846, 1389399, 1389400, 1416073, 1388221, 1388222, 1389401, 1389402, 1416080, 1388226, 1389403, 1388227, 1419830, 1419831, 1385691, 1385692, 1431085, 1385693, 1433365, 1433366, 1385694, 1442213, 1385695, 1442214, 1385696, 1439891, 1447096, 1447097, 1439892, 1442215, 1442216, 1439896, 1453293, 1439897, 1442217, 1453294, 1439898, 1426555, 1433378, 1432209, 1428554, 1433379, 1426556, 1428555, 1432210, 1428556, 1426557, 1432217, 1426558, 1457926, 1426559, 1457927, 1432218, 1442218, 1442219, 1459906, 1459907, 1467700, 1476409, 1476410, 1392691, 1449769, 1485503, 1448349, 1472517, 1485504, 1478863, 1448350, 1472518, 1478864, 1448351, 1472519, 1448352, 1478872, 1448353, 1478873, 1479569, 1479570, 1501893, 1505259, 1501894, 1506012, 1479571, 1455611, 1506013, 1479572, 1491732, 1455612, 1491733, 1455613, 1491734, 1455614, 1455615, 1532486, 1532487, 1528547, 1496571, 1527150, 1496572, 1538311, 1496573, 1538297, 1538312, 1538630, 1538631, 1527273, 1544001, 1496582, 1527274, 1544002, 1496583, 1496584, 1525659, 1555116, 1525660],
  "hashes": {
    "R/models/baselines.R": "1ea090f6865fef2066e9b95b5030bfe310223492bc07dc2f3e5fcd3f9973012c",
    "R/models/common.R": "ecae1059ec2c48225747fc46613e0f5cf1b2ec699dcacf87c20b4e56dadd0993",
    "R/models/context.R": "0a977b7800fe4ea46837eceecbb5a5259cabf7e04d3e085ba2a9b88759e2cf56",
    "R/models/current.R": "bb9db8f28f04c352f4c75ccd4d51dac1dd9ebb0172828d84a939dfb418eef5b9",
    "R/models/experiment.R": "0b2b4b3a3f6ca5e97c7459e49b04fccd35f5ced42523013d10ae79b3fbac01d1",
    "R/models/gam.R": "a32bdf59e7b79d48daf1358d1c9034720bfaddc8c4bcf0cd5892dc0e889ca760",
    "R/models/publication.R": "b1ced404be4151479377965a3a313a6cfe55e93f0a4aacc842dd8e3be25bc9e9",
    "R/models/stan.R": "ff508c264bb921d1203ace744c7b51ef42f815761f8cbf4e4549a05631e870b8",
    "R/models/strengths.R": "b59ee4a0f57cc725b8c3d9025b5a115c5b6285b42e526937c825f5e2b139a1cf",
    "scripts/models.R": "d43905fe784f2da4e4b32d1462c4314222ccc049715afbb0a7ffa7831142e314",
    "models/dynamic_probit.stan": "dbf8566400478f993ab9177c10e30cc279400059cebcf7b6dcdeb96fa8009e4c",
    "renv.lock": "8cdce78e86f45f2f97b0d254f2d773816d37179681544333fadbeed1c2ff222c",
    "R/pipeline.R": "dd1612e1e4617529e25ffdac6314c48a21de7b1ad33c56cdaf03a2851aed442e",
    "data/context/matches.csv": "6dc3e5a12c754e26ae7863c43953ebb89e8b3ba6ce6badf3fae08637a6dd32ce",
    "data/context/manifest.json": "f63e751d1d16cf6c98b6092bec90dc0f25853e7368fd9a9885924b5a67d08ccc",
    "data/build/manifest.json": "0cce3d12f72458fd1fdf3d1dc7e6fcda16b5b0c3ee71cd55186457ad000582cb"
  },
  "stan_diagnostics_passed": true,
  "chains": 4,
  "iterations_per_chain": 1000,
  "seed": 20261025,
  "cmdstan_version": "2.40.0",
  "packages": [
    {
      "package": "mgcv",
      "version": "1.9.4"
    },
    {
      "package": "PlayerRatings",
      "version": "1.1.0"
    },
    {
      "package": "TrueSkillThroughTime",
      "version": "1.0.0"
    },
    {
      "package": "cmdstanr",
      "version": "0.9.0"
    }
  ],
  "glicko": {
    "init": [2200, 300, 0.15],
    "tau": 1.2,
    "rdmax": 350,
    "period": "calendar month, final month partial"
  },
  "trueskill": {
    "mu": 0,
    "sigma": 6,
    "beta": 1,
    "gamma": 0.03,
    "time_unit": "day",
    "p_draw": 0.1993,
    "algorithm": "forward filtering; no backward convergence"
  },
  "interpretation": "Current national-team ratings; each model has a separate scale; not forecast evaluation",
  "files": {
    "coverage.csv": "86752dad26edb7ddb3655d521d39d3f02f9cc2fbc4b553e55621e9c783c6df44",
    "gam_tuning.csv": "b567c16cefdd84ce6149f8829a23c13181c4c72fa174159f785f1d53bb5be8e9",
    "latest.csv": "85269d428bd22e692b13881ba669f8a35d5ef9087b9d4d12e292f793e7c88e53",
    "stan_diagnostics.json": "15251d5769cb09b5286aa03f5a77637e6cd7b75ef31423c72868ba766ad0e8fa",
    "stan_levels.json": "ce18302ea29e9dac2cf4cea4118dee050072da26342126bdabf4e59304ce3ad5",
    "stan_parameters.csv": "160f667bd423043699a2a12ed1b536f4706e54f89466796a0e1388d115821bab",
    "stan_predictive_checks.csv": "b48367e364b32d2065b25a44a7807408d4fe132a8d592a30a1d290984ef08d8c",
    "strengths.csv": "22a608b4f6700865c956c10e1e212c985c8b162fefa3f67ad159be3b5fd03d4b",
    "gam.png": "b65d8896df24e699f8cf19c56c06fd9d41ae32073f35a46a0a46bb15e1a0116c",
    "gam.svg": "7f9c39443a88e2b17988b3d9a3d6f8ab384b4f8c61b49673d23e140bc254a272",
    "glicko2.png": "5fff3ad386177096b6d086e7513a2d3b600781132c297a397ab0829f37eaca7f",
    "glicko2.svg": "66d31cecd1b6473917ec6d9c0089fba5868bc74a8cedfd2d2ee7a7a8b716b5bc",
    "stan_dynamic_probit.png": "c01dd0e0ad2821c48164c80b094c5fa9ac65be38552f9ae3dc4406f4c2dad277",
    "stan_dynamic_probit.svg": "b2dd39fd9d2c57b7d26c5f2370a03edca9664342029780bad0a151d318d0e28c",
    "trueskill.png": "5feb99684a294568603bef764b5fa62617383c63714216df21f12eed4dd58150",
    "trueskill.svg": "a15cd0bde2ccda487e43e2712cc6c59e0044e76840341d64064ca74ce418c722"
  }
}