Player histories

A published history must distinguish estimates available at the time from retrospective estimates that use later evidence. A career curve fitted using all available matches cannot also serve as evidence of historical forecast accuracy.

A dedicated history view is not yet available. Historical fit cutoffs are included in the historical ODI download. The preparation pipeline joins appearances by Cricsheet person ID, preserving the name supplied in each match. This allows name changes and spelling variants to refer to the same person.

Future releases will retain each publication cutoff. Current-strength histories will use only observations available at each cutoff; retrospective smoothing will be labeled separately. Contribution histories will identify the valuation model and its version so changes in method are distinguishable from additional matches.

Each profile will show strength and cumulative contribution separately, with competition, exposure, uncertainty, and units next to the estimates.